Caro-COOPS.org Discussion Board

jcothran · Joined: 24 Feb 2025 Posts: 143 Location: Columbia, SC

Hi Lian,

We met with Earle this week and the subject came up of possible user output products(applications) which CaroCoops should probably pursue as a prototype in anticipation of our meetings with some potential users.

Earle’s concept of an application he thinks would be valid(correct me if I’m off here Earle) is to within our GIS, display the current roads and a flooding probability map so that evacuation personnel could advise on which roads will be inoperable.

The model output data we have seen so far has been inundation maps(number of feet of flooding). Can your model easily produce probability maps as well?

I think we’d be interested in getting(say via ftp) some sample data files of both inundation maps(feet of flooding) and probability maps(percentage chance of flooding) for Charleston harbor. The data can come from your current hindcast validation or something else, the main exercise here is for us to become familiar with the data format we should expect to see for these types of files when this is put into production.

It would be good if for both data files(inundation and probability) if we could get several files representing snapshots over a time span(say one snapshot per hour during the time of highest flooding for several hours) so that we could convert these time snapshots into distinct layers and animations within the GIS.

Also we’ll need a key or description to understand the data files we’ll be getting. I’ve looked through the data files we obtained at our last meeting, but I’m not sure how to read them. For instance, in the file charleston_final.dat, what does the following first line correlate to?

-10.500 -10.600 -10.600 -10.800 -11.000 -11.200 -11.200 -11.300 -11.400 -11.500 -11.500 -11.400 -11.100 -11.400 -11.500 -11.400 -11.600 -11.600 -11.600 -11.600 -11.700 -11.700 -11.700 -11.800 -11.900 -11.900 -12.000 -12.100 -12.100 -12.100 -12.200 -12.200 -12.200 -12.200 -12.200 -12.200 -12.300 -12.400 -12.500 -12.800 -12.900 -12.900 -13.000 -13.000 -13.100 -13.100 -13.200 -13.100 -13.000 -12.800 -12.800 -12.700 -12.700 -12.600 -12.600 -12.700 -12.600 -12.600 -12.600 -12.600 -12.600 -12.600 -12.500 -12.400 -12.400 -12.500 -12.600 -12.500 -12.500 -12.300 -12.200 -12.200 -12.200 -12.300 -12.300 -12.300 -12.400 -12.400 -12.400 -12.400 -12.500 -12.500 -12.400 -12.300 -12.300 -12.400 -12.500 -12.300 -12.200 -12.200 -12.200 -12.200 -12.100 -12.100 -12.000 -11.900 -11.800 -11.700 -11.600 -11.400 -11.300 -11.200 -11.200 -11.200 -11.100 -11.100 -11.000 -11.000 -10.800 -10.600 -10.600 -10.600 -10.500 -10.500 -10.500 -10.500 -10.600 -10.700 -10.500 -10.300 -10.400 -10.500 -10.500 -10.600 -10.600 -10.700 -10.900 -11.000 -11.100 -11.100 -11.200 -11.300 -11.300 -11.400 -11.500 -11.500 -11.600 -11.600 -11.700 -11.700 -11.800 -11.800 -11.800 -11.900 -11.900 -11.900 -12.000 -12.000 -12.000 -12.100 -12.100 -12.100 -12.100 -12.200 -12.200 -12.200 -12.200 -12.300 -12.300 -12.300 -12.300 -12.400 -12.400 -12.400 -12.400 -12.500 -12.500 -12.500 -12.500 -12.600 -12.600 -12.600 -12.600 -12.700 -12.700 -12.700 -12.700 -12.700 -12.800 -12.800 -12.800 -12.800 -12.800 -12.900 -12.900 -12.900 -12.900 -13.000 -13.000 -13.000 -13.000 -13.000 -13.100 -13.100 -13.100 -13.100 -13.100 -13.200 -13.200 -13.200 -13.200 -13.200 -13.200 -13.300 -13.300 -13.300 -13.300 -13.300 -13.400 -13.400 -13.400 -13.400 -13.400 -13.400 -13.500 -13.500 -13.500 -13.500 -13.500 -13.500 -13.600 -13.600 -13.600 -13.600 -13.600 -13.600 -13.700 -13.700 -13.700 -13.700 -13.700 -13.700 -13.800 -13.800 -13.800 -13.800 -13.800 -13.800 -13.900 -13.900 -13.900 -13.900 -13.900 -13.900 -14.000 -14.000 -14.000 -14.000 -14.000 -14.000 -14.100 -14.100 -14.100 -14.100 -14.100 -14.100 -14.200 -14.200 -14.200 -14.200 -14.200 -14.200 -14.300 -14.300 -14.300 -14.300 -14.300 -14.300 -14.400 -14.400 -14.400 -14.400 -14.400 -14.500 -14.500 -14.500 -14.500 -14.500 -14.500 -14.600 -14.600 -14.600 -14.600 -14.600 -14.700 -14.700 -14.700 -14.700 -14.700 -14.800 -14.800 -14.800 -14.800 -14.800 -14.900 -14.900 -14.900 -14.900 -14.900 -15.000 -15.000 -15.000 -15.000 -15.000 -15.100 -15.100 -15.100 -15.100 -15.100 -15.200 -15.200 -15.200 -15.200 -15.200 -15.300 -15.300 -15.300 -15.300 -15.300 -15.400 -15.400 -15.400 -15.400 -15.400 -15.500 -15.500 -15.500 -15.500 -15.500 -15.600 -15.600 -15.600 -15.600 -15.600 -15.700 -15.700 -15.700 -15.700 -15.700 -15.800 -15.800 -15.800 -15.800 -15.800 -15.800 -15.900 -15.900 -15.900 -15.900 -15.900 -16.000 -16.000 -16.000 -16.000 -16.000 -16.100 -16.100 -16.100 -16.100 -16.100 -16.100 -16.200 -16.200 -16.200 -16.200 -16.200 -16.200 -16.300 -16.300 -16.300 -16.300 -16.300 -16.300 -16.400 -16.400 -16.400 -16.400 -16.400 -16.400 -16.500 -16.500 -16.500 -16.500 -16.500 -16.500 -16.600 -16.600 -16.600 -16.600 -16.600 -16.600 -16.600 -16.700 -16.700 -16.700 -16.700 -16.700 -16.700 -16.700 -16.800 -16.800 -16.800 -16.800 -16.800 -16.800 -16.800 -16.900 -16.900 -16.900 -16.900 -16.900 -16.900 -16.900 -16.900 -17.000 -17.000 -17.000 -17.000 -17.000 -17.000 -17.000 -17.000 -17.100 -17.100 -17.100 -17.100 -17.100 -17.100 -17.100 -17.100 -17.200 -17.200 -17.200 -17.200 -17.200 -17.200 -17.200 -17.200 -17.300 -17.300 -17.300 -17.300 -17.300 -17.300 -17.300 -17.300 -17.400 -17.400 -17.400 -17.400 -17.400 -17.400 -17.400 -17.400 -17.500 -17.500 -17.500 -17.500 -17.500 -17.500 -17.600 -17.600 -17.600 -17.600 -17.600 -17.600 -17.600 -17.700 -17.700 -17.700 -17.700 -17.700 -17.800 -17.800 -17.800 -17.800 -17.800 -17.900 -17.900 -17.900 -17.900

Thanks and hope things are going well,
Jeremy

jcothran · Joined: 24 Feb 2025 Posts: 143 Location: Columbia, SC

Jeremy,

We are talking about two different types of applications. One is a MEOW type product (probabilistic MEOW), produced before hand. One is real-time probabilistic forecast. In my previous message, I referred to the Probabilistic MEOW. We haven't even begun the development of the second type of probabilistic product, which will effectively be an ensemble type storm surge forecast (in real-time). The first product is funded by NOAA CSC/Waterstone while the second product is not yet funded to do. There is still quite a distance to cross from what we have now to the ensemble forecast of storm surge (which does not exist anywhere). Len and Madilyn need to set the priorities.

--- Lian

On Wednesday, May 7, 2003, at 04:51 PM, Jeremy Cothran wrote:

This raises a few more questions in my mind. I'd guess that Caro-COOPS would be supplying two types of data products, one generated beforehand based on predicted conditions and another generated at the time of the event(hurricane) which would be more accurate(although to what extent I'm unsure) due to the presence of near real-time data. In the beforehand scenario, the time required to generate the products is not an issue, but in the near real-time scenario, there is a limited amount of time that the data is of use before the event occurs.

Would this be correct?(datasets generated/used beforehand, datasets generated in a pre-event time window) or is it just one of the two?

If there is a limited time frame in which to generate results, I imagine that we'll have to define in accordance with the Emergency Management team what a possible scenario would be for the time frame and which products would be most useful which could be produced in that time frame.

I'm also unsure of how to qualitatively compare the inundation maps to the probability maps. If I'm looking at a predicted inundation map, is the predicted inundation a high probability(say greater than 90%) event?

For a probability map, should the map be for:

any amount of flooding
just flooding over a certain amount
variable as requested by the user

The prospective users in Emergency Management should be able to shape the requirements for the products needed.

Thanks,
Jeremy

-----Original Message-----

Hi Jeremy,

Yes, we can produce both inundation and probability maps. We already have inundation data files for the Charleston area, but it will take some time to produce probability maps since numerous cases must be run to generate the statistics.

--- Lian