Storm Surge Demonstration Project

An initial demonstration of the real-time interdisciplinary forecast concept for Caro-COOPS is focusing on development of real-time analyses of storm surge and flooding before and during landfall of coastal storms, to improve warnings and provide local officials with the information needed to focus on mitigation, preparedness, and prevention measures.

Preliminary validation of the modeling system for the Charleston Harbor region has been conducted. A real-time prognostic capability to predict coastal flooding has been established for Tropical Cyclones and Extra-Tropical Cyclones for the Charleston Harbor region at high spatial resolution (80-m grid) and for the entire Caro-Coops region at 2-km grid resolution.

In addition to building the real-time capability, the following demonstration projects have been completed:

Hurricane Hugo Hindcast

The hurricane struck the South Carolina coast to the north of Charleston over the period September 20-23, 1989 and caused not only considerable wind but also massive water damage to the city and surrounding areas. As proposed, for computational efficiency, and for much greater accuracy but also for GIS overlays, we have developed a nested model architecture. An animation of the offshore surge and an animation of the surge in Charleston Harbor proper and adjacent areas have also been developed.

Hurricane Isabel Predictions

Isabel approached the middle portion of the US Eastern Seaboard 17-19 September, 2003. Isabel achieved Category 5 status while in the central SE Atlantic but declined in intensity beginning on 14 September. By the time that the eye made landfall at ~ 1:00 PM on the 18th, at Ocracoke, NC, the event had downgraded significantly to a Category 2 to 1. While Isabel was not an especially wet event, with precipitation estimates of 1-7 inches, it caused significant storm surge flooding. At the request of the NWS Raleigh and Morehead Forecast Offices, the NCSU CEMEPS team began participating in the forecast activities of Hurricane Isabel on September 12. A special website for Isabel was set up and made available to the NWS Forecast Offices on Monday September 15. This site was then linked with USC Caro-COOPS, Ocean.US, and NOAA Coastal Services Center web sites for greater community dissemination. Ensemble simulations began on Saturday September 13. The results from the ensemble simulations, including a map of flooding probability in the Pamlico-Albemarle Sound system and storm surge animation for the official forecast track, were posted on the websites on Monday September 15, four days prior to the storm making landfall. When the track and intensity of the storm became better defined, the model was run again with both ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts. The forecasts were updated twice a day and put on the websites for general access. Initial feedback from NWS WFO forecasters indicate that the products provided by the model were very accurate and added considerable value to the suite of forecast guidance products available to them routinely.