Hurricane Isabel Experimental Forecast

The following model predictions and products are provided by the Coastal Fluid Dynamics Lab at NC State University. These products are under review and the inputs and prediction capabilities are being enhanced as new near-real-time data sources in the Caro-COOPS array become available.

Storm Surge

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Comment: This is the worst case scenario of Hurricane Isabel's storm surge inundation map based on 11AM, September 17 NHC official track, steady category 2 storm, and constant 70 mile maximum wind radius. Note that the results are based on a coarse resolution (1 km grid) model run. As a result, narrow rivers are not well resolved.

Storm surge movie

Click above link to view the latest storm surge animation (surge unit is in METER). The surge is based on the 5PM, September 16 NHC Official Track and a steady Category 2 storm (958mb minimum pressure). This simulation was mainly focusing on the Sound-side flooding in Pamilco Sound. The large surge in Albemarle Sound and Chesapeake Bay should be reduced, since storm dissipation wasn't considered. This is based on the 1 km grid model run.

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Comment: This is a more conservative estimate of Hurricane Isabel storm surge inundation probability based on 11AM, September 17 NHC official track and 10 additional interpolated tracks. All are for a Category 2 storm at landfall and dissipating according to NHC forecast guidance. Model resolution: 100 m grids.

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Comment: This is a conservative estimate of Hurricane Isabel storm surge (in FEET) based on 11AM, September 17 NHC official track, Category 2 storm which dissipates according to the NHC forecast Guidance. Model grid size is 100 m.